Housing — GeoMean Research

Housing

The housing read — what high mortgage rates are doing to sales, construction, and prices.

At a glancelatest data · Jul 9

30Y Mortgage6.49%+0.06Stuck near 6.5% — where the freeze startsExisting Sales4.1M−100.0K4.09M in June — low, but inside this year's rangeHousing Starts1.2M−215.0KDown 15% in May — builders pulling backBuilding Permits1.4M−13.0KSoft and drifting lowerCase-Shiller Y/Y0.8%+0.1Price growth stalled to near-flatNew-Home Supply10.3+1Unsold new homes piling up, 10+ months

The resale freeze deepened in June — sales slipped to a 4.09 million pace at 6.5% mortgage rates, and the market splits by region: unsold homes pile up across the South while Northern listings vanish on contact. Builders keep pulling back with new-home supply above ten months.

July 5, 2026
The South Has Homes but Few Buyers; the North Has Buyers but Few Homes Housing
Homes for sale in the 50 largest US metros have split by region — the South and West hold 12% more than before the pandemic, the North 36% fewer. Sellers don't explain it — they list about 18% fewer homes than in 2019 in both regions. Buyers do. In the South, homes under contract are down a fifth from 2019 and listing prices are falling; in the North, homes under contract are up 30% against far fewer listings, and prices hold flat while Southern prices fall.