Summary of August Pending Home Sales · September 17, 2026

  • The index rose 0.3% to 71.2 after July was revised to 71.0 from 71.2 (NAR, index table); economists polled by Reuters had expected a 0.6% fall.
  • Signings ran 4.7% below August 2025, a month signed at nearly the same mortgage rate (Freddie Mac).
  • This week’s 30-year rate averaged 6.95%, the highest since January 2025.

August rose 0.3 percent only because July was revised down

The revision, which the release text does not mention and the index table only flags, took July to 71.0, its lowest reading since January’s 70.8; August’s 71.2 is no change from July’s first print. The year-ago gap widened from 2.5 percent below to 4.7 with almost no change in the level: August 2025’s 74.7 was 1.9 points above July 2025, and that step in the comparison month is the whole widening. Only January and revised July are lower than August in the past twelve months.

Yun’s price explanation fits one month, not July or the year

The Northeast’s index fell 4.2 percent and the Midwest’s 1.6; the South’s rose 2.3 and the West’s 3.0. Lawrence Yun (NAR) called those regions’ “fastest home price growth in August” “part of the reason” for the declines, and August’s median prices did split that way: up 4.3 percent from a year earlier in the Northeast and 3.3 in the Midwest, against 0.7 in the South and −0.2 in the West (NAR). The pairing holds for one month only. In July the South and West fell most (3.0 and 4.7 percent), and over the year the West, where prices fell, is down 6.7 percent, the most of any region; the Northeast, with the fastest price growth, is down 3.9.

August’s signings never saw 6.95 percent; September’s will

Freddie Mac’s 30-year rate ran 6.65 to 6.69 percent across August’s four weeks. This week’s survey averaged 6.95 percent, up 19 basis points, matching January 30, 2025 and above every week since (Freddie Mac weekly history), over a September 10–16 window that holds the 10-year Treasury’s first two closes above 5 percent this year (Treasury).

Yun says higher rates are “offsetting the increased buying power created by job gains and income growth outpacing home price growth.” August is no test of that: signings are 4.7 percent below an August 2025 signed at 6.56 to 6.63, less than 10 basis points lower. September’s index, due October 20, is the first month signed at 6.95.

Sources

NAR, Pending Home Sales, August 2026 and the index table with the July revision, archived with the July and August 2025 tables · Reuters poll of economists (−0.6%), Sep 17, as syndicated by Investing.com, archived (reuters.com not fetched) · Treasury par yield curve, 2026 CSV, archived with the September FOMC note · Freddie Mac PMMS, Sep 17 and its weekly history, archived · Builds on the August existing-home sales note.