Latest
- August 28, 2026 The Payroll Benchmark Revision Was −79,000 — After Three Years Averaging Nearly 700,000 Jobs
The preliminary benchmark revision to March 2026 payrolls was −79,000, or −0.1 percent — after three years in which the same exercise cut 306,000, then 818,000, then 911,000. The revision is smaller than the 10-year average, private payrolls were revised down 178,000 while government was revised up 99,000, and the payroll estimates the policy argument was built on turn out to have been about right through March.
- August 28, 2026 Warsh Called 2 Percent a "Firm, Fixed Target" and Said the Soft Summer Readings Don't Show Real Progress FOMC
In his first Jackson Hole keynote, Chair Warsh called the 2 percent PCE objective 'a firm, fixed target,' said the Fed's 'predominant focus right now should be on prices,' and said he would be 'hard pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive.' He dismissed the summer's better inflation readings via a new diffusion measure and never mentioned the balance sheet.
- August 26, 2026 Investment Fees Were Half of July's Core PCE; Without Them It Is 3.0 Percent PCE
Half of July's 0.246 percent core PCE increase came from investment-management fees, which are billed against client assets and reprice off the prior quarter's stock market. The same line carried 42 percent of last July's increase. Strip it out and core still runs 3.0 percent over 12 months, more than a point above the Fed's objective — and BEA changes how it prices the line on September 30.
- August 26, 2026 Corporate Profits Took a Record Share of National Income; Real Household Income Fell GDP
Real GDP printed 1.5 percent again — BEA calls it a downward revision of less than a tenth of a point — and the numbers underneath it moved a great deal more. Corporate profits reached 13.2 percent of gross domestic income, the highest share in the 318 quarters BEA has published since 1947, while real disposable personal income fell 1.5 percent in the quarter and is now down over four quarters. Private domestic demand grew 4.2 percent.
- August 23, 2026 Treasury Will Double Its Long-Bond Buybacks in September; Strong Data Took the Rally Back in Two Days Weekly
The Treasury said on Wednesday it would at least double the size of its buybacks of 10-to-30-year bonds, overriding a schedule it had published two weeks earlier; the larger operations do not begin until September 9. Thirty-year yields fell nine basis points on the announcement, then rose through Thursday and Friday on strong factory surveys and costlier oil to close at 5.27% — above where they started, and below Monday's 5.31%, the highest close since June 2007. Hours after the announcement, the July FOMC minutes showed many participants judging that tightening would likely be necessary if inflation did not decline. Over the week the 30-year's inflation-protected yield fell while its nominal yield rose.
- August 18, 2026 Builders Started the Fewest Single-Family Homes Since 2022; the Entire Annual Decline in Total Starts Is in the South Housing
July housing starts fell 12.4% to a 1.239 million annual pace, a statistically significant drop that reversed June's all-apartment jump. Single-family starts fell to 808,000 — the lowest since November 2022, down a significant 15.7% on the year. The South accounts for more than the entire annual decline in total starts (−205,000 against −193,000 nationally, the only regional total outside the margin of error) and about two-thirds of the single-family decline — the pullback is concentrated in the oversupplied half of the country. Permits rose 5.0% to 1.443 million while homes authorized but not yet started climbed a significant 10.3% on the year; completions, at 1.212 million, are the lowest since May 2020.
- August 17, 2026 The Case for a September Hike Came Apart; the 30-Year Auctioned at Its Highest Yield Since 2001 Anyway Weekly
September hike odds fell from about 55% on Monday to roughly 30% by the weekend as core CPI printed its smallest 12-month rise since February, producer prices went flat, and retail sales fell 0.6% — yet Thursday's $25 billion 30-year auction stopped at 5.216%, the highest since 2001, and the 30-year closed the week at 5.25%, two basis points under its 2026 high. The New York Fed will also make no reserve-management purchases through mid-September, the program's first pause. Short-maturity investors traded the meeting; long-maturity investors were pricing a Fed that won't say how it decides.
- August 13, 2026 The Producer Core's Annual Rate Fell to 4.7 Percent; Its Three-Month Pace Is 5.1 PPI
Producer core inflation's 12-month rate fell to 4.7 percent from 5.0, but its three-month pace is 5.1 percent annualized — the annual figure is catching down to a run rate that has not moved as much. Freight is about 0.25 points of the 0.35-point annual decline, and half of freight's own slowdown is a strong July 2025 leaving the window.
- August 12, 2026 Core Inflation Slowed to 2.5 Percent; Rents Have Not Slowed Since January CPI
Core CPI rose 0.2 percent in July and 2.5 percent over 12 months, the smallest rise since February. The rent measures took no part in it: owners' equivalent rent rose 0.26 percent, a 3.2 percent pace identical to its 12-month rate, and has held between 3.1 and 3.3 percent every month since January. Shelter printed 0.14 percent only because lodging fell 2.8 percent — a line BLS reports with a 1.6-point standard error.
- August 11, 2026 Investors Pulled Back and Repeat Owners Took Their Place Housing
July existing-home sales ran at a 4.06 million annual pace (−1.7% m/m, +0.7% y/y) — a seventh straight month inside 4.01–4.19 million, with June revised up to 4.13 million. Under the flat total the buyer pool shifted: individual investors and second-home buyers fell to 14% of transactions from 20% a year ago, cash to 26% from 31%, leaving repeat owner-occupant buyers at roughly 57% and about three purchases in four carrying a mortgage. The Northeast–South price gap widened to 4.3 points of annual growth. Inventory slipped 0.6% below its year-ago level after going flat in June. The mortgage climb to 6.69% began in early July — after the contracts behind July's closings — so the rate test arrives with the August report on September 10.
- August 8, 2026 The First Negative Payroll Month Since 2020 Cut September Hike Odds Nearly in Half Weekly
The first negative payroll month since 2020 cut September hike odds nearly in half, and the S&P 500 set two record closes in a week — but the jobs report that did it is the year's most ambiguous, the oil relief came from a tentative Hormuz deal, and the Treasury quietly softened its own borrowing language. Gold rose 7% to a seven-week high while 30-year yields eased only to 5.19%: the cyclical scare faded; the structural repricing didn't.
- August 7, 2026 Payrolls Fell 23,000; Unemployment Fell Only Because 264,000 People Left the Labor Force Jobs
July payrolls fell 23,000 against a consensus near +83,000 — the first negative month since 2020, per press readings of the series, with 103,000 more jobs revised away from May and June. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% anyway, because 264,000 people left the labor force. The series disagree on the surface and reconcile through participation — a smaller, softening labor market. Investors priced the dovish side: September hike odds fell from about 67% earlier in the week to near 40%.
Explainers
- June 19, 2026 Does the Fed follow through on dot-plot surprises?
Whether the Fed's dot-plot projections actually forecast its rate path — and how to read a fresh dot-plot surprise.