Weekly
The weekly read on what the data and the tape mean.
- June 26, 2026 Cheaper Oil Couldn't Cool a Services Core
The dovish bet rested on falling oil. This week oil delivered — WTI down more than 10% to $70 as the Strait of Hormuz reopened — and the bet broke anyway, because core PCE hit a three-year high on services inflation that cheaper oil never touches.
- June 20, 2026 The No-Hike Bet Rests on Oil Staying Down
The market faded the Warsh Fed's hawkish dots because the oil shock collapsed — but this week the floor under cheaper oil took its first hits, and core PCE on June 25 can't settle it.
- June 19, 2026 Warsh's Fed Penciled a Hike the Market Doesn't Believe
The Warsh Fed flipped its forecast to a 2026 rate hike the market doesn't believe — the same week oil collapsed 25%.
- June 7, 2026 Everything Is a Rates Trade Now
A hot jobs print broke a ten-week melt-up and turned every asset into a bet on the Fed.