Weekly
The weekly read on what the data and the markets mean.
- October 12, 2026 Strong 10-Year Auctions Have Not Predicted Yields a Month Later
The 10-year Treasury sold on October 7 at 5.30 percent, the highest yield at a 10-year auction since at least 2009, and the dealers required to bid won 2.5 percent of it, their smallest share in the same records. In 208 auctions since mid-2009, stronger bidding than usual has had no measurable relationship with where the 10-year yield stood 20 trading days later. The 10-year ended the week at 5.24 percent, 4 basis points below the prior Friday.
- October 4, 2026 Traders Now Expect the Fed's Next Increase in December, Not October
Futures put the odds of a Fed rate increase on October 28 at 23 percent on Friday, from about 70 early in the week; odds of an increase by December were above 75 percent. The 10-year Treasury closed at 5.29 percent on Wednesday, its highest since May 2002. The New York Fed's model puts all of the 10-year's rise since September 16 in term premium, the extra yield for holding a long bond; over September 16 to 25, the days both models cover, it puts 11 of 15 basis points there and the Fed Board's model 5 of 11.
- September 30, 2026 A $532 Billion Interest Revision Put Gross Domestic Income Above GDP GDP
BEA's annual update raised second-quarter gross domestic income by $507 billion at an annual rate, and net interest alone by $532 billion: 2023 tax returns, carried forward with company filings. Income-side GDP now exceeds spending-side GDP for a third straight quarter; before the update, GDP had exceeded GDI in every quarter since late 2022. Real GDP growth was revised to 2.2 percent from 1.5.
- September 26, 2026 The 10-Year's Rise to a 2007 High Was All Inflation-Adjusted Yield
The 10-year Treasury closed at 5.18 percent on September 24, its highest since July 2007. Since June 1 it has risen 70 basis points while its inflation-adjusted yield rose 76 and breakeven inflation fell 6; this week the split was 15 and 1. The rise sat in rates six to ten years out, not in the two-year, not in the two-year, which prices the Fed's next moves. Wednesday's selloff followed a strong business survey and a Fed governor's call for more increases; the weakest five-year auction in years came three hours later.
- September 7, 2026 Hike Odds Rose to 60 Percent on a Jobs Report Waller Discounted
Governor Waller set a public condition on Thursday — hold in September if disinflation continues in the data due before the meeting, consider a hike if August inflation comes in hot — and said the labor market was not a large factor in his vote. Friday's jobs report then beat the 53,000 consensus by 109,000, with 683,000 people joining the labor force and wages growing at their slowest since 2021, and futures moved from 50 to 60 percent for a hike on a report he had said would not move him. Waller discounts the imputed fee line that was half of July's core PCE increase; without it core still runs 3.0 percent. Brent rose 7.6 percent as the US and Iran traded strikes, and the 30-year moved two basis points through all of it. His vote turns on Friday's CPI.
- August 30, 2026 Warsh Sent September Hike Odds to 59 Percent
Chair Warsh's first Jackson Hole speech sent September hike odds to 59 percent from 35 — and the 30-year, which had already fallen on the week as Brent crude dropped 9 percent in two sessions, absorbed the repricing with a three-basis-point rise on the day. The Treasury's off-schedule buybacks bought the 30-year two days of relief in August; Friday's hawkish shock couldn't push it back above where the week began. The week's releases strengthened the hawks' case: headline PCE at 3.7 percent against a 3.6 consensus, corporate profits at a record share of national income, and a payroll benchmark revision small enough to validate the jobs data. The September 16 meeting now comes after the densest data week of the quarter.
- August 26, 2026 Corporate Profits Took a Record Share of National Income GDP
Real GDP printed 1.5 percent again — BEA calls it a downward revision of less than a tenth of a point — and the numbers underneath it moved a great deal more. Corporate profits reached 13.2 percent of gross domestic income, the highest share in the 318 quarters BEA has published since 1947, while real disposable personal income fell 1.5 percent in the quarter and is now down over four quarters. Private domestic demand grew 4.2 percent.
- August 23, 2026 Treasury Will Double Its Long-Bond Buybacks in September
The Treasury said on Wednesday it would at least double the size of its buybacks of 10-to-30-year bonds, overriding a schedule it had published two weeks earlier; the larger operations do not begin until September 9. Thirty-year yields fell nine basis points on the announcement, then rose through Thursday and Friday on strong factory surveys and costlier oil to close at 5.27% — above where they started, and below Monday's 5.31%, the highest close since June 2007. Hours after the announcement, the July FOMC minutes showed many participants judging that tightening would likely be necessary if inflation did not decline. Over the week the 30-year's inflation-protected yield fell while its nominal yield rose.
- August 17, 2026 The 30-Year Sold at a 2001-High Yield as Hike Odds Fell
September hike odds fell from about 55% on Monday to roughly 30% by the weekend as core CPI printed its smallest 12-month rise since February, producer prices went flat, and retail sales fell 0.6% — yet Thursday's $25 billion 30-year auction stopped at 5.216%, the highest since 2001, and the 30-year closed the week at 5.25%, two basis points under its 2026 high. The New York Fed will also make no reserve-management purchases through mid-September, the program's first pause. Short-maturity investors traded the meeting; long-maturity investors were pricing a Fed that won't say how it decides.
- August 8, 2026 The First Negative Payroll Month Since 2020 Halved September Hike Odds
The first negative payroll month since 2020 cut September hike odds nearly in half, and the S&P 500 set two record closes in a week — but the jobs report that did it is the year's most ambiguous, the oil relief came from a tentative Hormuz deal, and the Treasury quietly softened its own borrowing language. Gold rose 7% to a seven-week high while 30-year yields eased only to 5.19%: the cyclical scare faded; the structural repricing didn't.
- August 1, 2026 30-Year Yields Hit a 2007 High in the Week Core Inflation Slowed
The Fed held 9–3, core PCE rose just 0.1% in June, and 30-year Treasury yields still closed at 5.27% — their highest since July 2007. The three facts don't share one cause: September odds fell because of the hold, stocks recovered on earnings, and long-maturity yields rose because demand for long Treasuries is weakening while Warsh questions how much support the Fed's balance sheet should provide. Also this week: the first joint US–Japan yen intervention in about three decades, and a levered AI fund's forced sale to Citadel.
- July 25, 2026 The Case for a Hike Came Back at $100 Oil
The case for a hike that a negative CPI killed two weeks ago came back at $100 oil — July hike odds went from 12% to 38% and September to about 82% without a single inflation report, on what the IEA calls the largest disruption in the history of the global oil market and jobless claims at a 1969 low. Equities punished the same AI spending the Fed counts as an inflation driver: Alphabet raised its capex guide and fell 7%. Wednesday's decision is the first genuinely live meeting of the Warsh era, and the quarter's GDP and PCE data land the morning after it.
- July 11, 2026 The Chip Rout and the Near-Record Index Are One Event
Semiconductors have lost about $2.1 trillion in value since June 22 — the median chip stock is down 21% — while the S&P 500 sits half a percent from its record. Both are one event: money rotating out of the AI leaders into the other 459 stocks. Under it, investors moved to about 70% odds of a Fed hike by September after minutes that scrubbed the easing bias; oil spiked and faded on Iran, June's home sales confirmed the North–South housing split, and Tuesday's CPI will print a negative headline from an oil collapse that has already partly reversed.
- June 26, 2026 Cheaper Oil Isn't Cooling the Services Core
The bet on rate cuts rested on falling oil. This week oil kept falling — WTI down more than 10% to $70 as the Strait of Hormuz reopened — and the bet broke anyway, because core PCE hit a three-year high on services inflation that cheaper oil never touches.
- June 20, 2026 The No-Hike Bet Rests on Oil Staying Down
Investors dismissed the Warsh Fed's higher-rate projections because the oil shock collapsed — but this week the floor under cheaper oil took its first hits, and core PCE on June 25 can't settle it.
- June 19, 2026 Warsh's Fed Projected a Hike Investors Don't Believe
The Warsh Fed flipped its forecast to a 2026 rate hike the market isn't pricing — the same week oil collapsed 25%.
- June 7, 2026 Everything Is a Rates Trade Now
A jobs print well above consensus broke a ten-week rally and turned every asset into a bet on the Fed.