August broke the year's floor — 3.98 million, the first month under the 4.01–4.19 million band that held every month of 2026, and by only about 30,000 a year. The decline sorts by price: sales between $100,000 and $250,000 fell 10.0% where the 1.5% rise Case-Shiller measured would carry out 5.1%, while the $250,000-to-$500,000 middle fell 2.2% against 4.8%. September's report (Oct 13, off NAR's usual slot) is the first written on contracts signed at 6.65–6.71%, and it tests whether the bottom keeps falling past what rising prices explain while the middle keeps holding.

August core rose 0.29% against a 0.2% forecast, a third of it a record 5.9% jump in wireless phone plans, while owners' equivalent rent's three-month pace slowed to 2.8% from 3.2%. September CPI (Oct 14) is the first to carry Brent above $100 and the last inflation report before the Oct 28 FOMC, where an increase is priced near 20%. The Cleveland Fed's nowcast has headline at 0.53% and core at 0.20%; the New York Fed's household survey put one-year expected inflation at 3.9% in September, the highest since May 2023, with the five-year unchanged at 3.0%. It also shows whether owners' rent stays under 0.2 a second month and whether the wireless jump reverses.

August's diesel line rose 24.1% (17.7% before seasonal adjustment) against an 8.7% terminal rise, after the index missed July's 15% terminal move; the producer core's three-month pace fell to 3.3% annualized on a flat services block while the consumer-facing cut held at 4.4%. September PPI (Oct 15) is the $100-crude month — terminal diesel was already 11% above the August average on Sep 1 — and tests whether the services block stays flat while freight rises on fuel, and whether the diesel index tracks the terminal without another catch-up.

August rose 1.2% against a 0.8% forecast, and 1.2% with autos and gasoline excluded, after July's 0.6% drop, a two-month gain of about 0.9% before prices. September (Oct 15) covers the month gasoline reached $4.48 and diesel a record $6.53 (both have since fallen, to $4.35 and $6.20 on Oct 5), and shows whether spending holds in real terms or the gain is price.

August revised July's single-family low away (808K→853K) and rose to 918K; the year's single-family decline is 4.7% and only the Northeast's clears the margin. Completions fell to the slowest pace since December 2018, mostly apartments started in 2024's slump. September (Oct 20) shows whether single-family holds near 900K and whether the 280K stack of permitted-but-unstarted homes starts to shrink.

August's index was flat at July's first-reported 71.2 (+0.3% only because July was revised down to 71.0), 4.7% below a year ago with all four regions down; the Northeast and Midwest fell in the month, though that price pairing held neither in July nor over the year. September's index (Oct 20) is the first written on rates rising from 6.71% toward the 6.95% of Sep 17, the highest since January 2025, and tests whether signings hold flat or turn down.

August was flat against a −0.4% forecast, and core capital-goods orders rose 1.6% to $87.6 billion while factory output fell 0.3%. September (late October) shows whether business investment orders keep outrunning production.

The median new house sells for its mid-2021 price while Census's same-house index is up 20% since: cheaper houses are what sell. September (Oct 27) brings the Q3 index — below 192.4 and same-house prices are falling on the year. Also the first month signed at 6.95% mortgage rates, and whether the record 114,000 unstarted unsold homes survive revision.

September's increase to 3.75–4.00% was 12–0. The minutes (Oct 7) say most participants saw another increase as likely appropriate by year end, and Waller said Oct 8 that further increases "do not need to come at consecutive meetings". Odds of an Oct 28 increase stayed near 20% all week (23% on Oct 2); futures put at least one increase by December at 85% and at least two by March near 80%. The 10-year closed at 5.31% on Oct 5, its highest since May 2002, and at 5.24% on Oct 9 after a 10-year auction at 5.30% in which dealers won 2.5%. September CPI (Oct 14) is the last inflation report before Oct 28; Warsh speaks Oct 15 in Bangkok, his first scheduled appearance since the September press conference. Governor Cook votes Oct 28; a White House committee hears the case for her removal Nov 5.

BEA's annual update restated July's core PCE to 3.0% from 3.3, most of it new prices for investment fees and software; August held at 3.0 with a three-month pace of 2.1%, the lowest since July 2024. September PCE (Oct 29) lands the day after the FOMC and is the first quarter-start month under the new fee method.

BEA's annual update revised Q2 growth to 2.2% from 1.5 and raised the income side by $507 billion, nearly all net interest extrapolated from 2023 tax returns, so measured income now exceeds spending for three straight quarters. The Q3 advance (Oct 29) is the first quarter built on the revised base: whether the income side stays above spending, and whether private demand holds near Q2's 4.6%.

September (Oct 1): prices 77.9 from 71.1 — 58.6% of factories paying more, from 46.2% — with Brent averaging $114 and US tariffs on Canadian goods in force since Aug 22; PMI 54.5, employment flat before seasonal adjustment. October ISM (Nov 2) shows whether the cost jump holds if crude stays off its Sep 15 peak.

August (Sep 29): openings fell 256K to 7.08M, all of it at workplaces under 10 workers, which are back to their year-ago level; everyone else is +160K on the year. Layoffs 1.64M, fewest since March 2025; quits 1.9% a 14th month at or below 2.0. September (Nov 3) lands after the Oct 27–28 FOMC; the question is whether the small-business count settles or swings again.

September (Oct 5): half of services firms (50.3%) paid more, level with April and May, and the prices index reached 74.0, which ISM calls its highest since July 2022; employment 50.1 with as many firms cutting as adding; business activity fell 5.2 points, 1.5 before seasonal adjustment. October services (Nov 4) shows whether the share paying more holds near 50% if Brent stays below its September average, and whether activity regains the drop as it did last October.

September printed +29,000 against 84,000, July–August were revised down 60,000, and the labor force grew 485,000 after 683,000 — young-weighted and inside the survey's margin; its year-long decline was January's population revision. October (Nov 6) lands after the Oct 28 FOMC: whether three-month job growth (51,000) moves back toward the ~80,000 Barr called close to breakeven.

August core rose 0.29% against a 0.2% forecast, a third of it a record 5.9% jump in wireless phone plans, while owners' equivalent rent's three-month pace slowed to 2.8% from 3.2%. September CPI (Oct 14) is the first to carry Brent above $100 and the last inflation report before the Oct 28 FOMC, where an increase is priced near 20%. The Cleveland Fed's nowcast has headline at 0.53% and core at 0.20%; the New York Fed's household survey put one-year expected inflation at 3.9% in September, the highest since May 2023, with the five-year unchanged at 3.0%. It also shows whether owners' rent stays under 0.2 a second month and whether the wireless jump reverses.