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VERSION:2.0
PRODID:-//GeoMean Research//releases//EN
X-WR-CALNAME:GeoMean Releases
CALSCALE:GREGORIAN
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:cpi-2026-07-14@geomean.com
DTSTART:20260714T123000Z
SUMMARY:CPI (Jun 2026) — BLS
DESCRIPTION:Jun 2026\nStakes: Consensus sees a negative headline month on June's oil drop — with oil back up since, this may be the low. Core services decides hike-vs-hold.\nWatch: core vs headline; contribution decomposition with our own weight math; run rates\nhttps://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm
URL:https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:ppi-2026-07-15@geomean.com
DTSTART:20260715T123000Z
SUMMARY:PPI (Jun 2026) — BLS
DESCRIPTION:Jun 2026\nStakes: The pipeline check — does producer-side disinflation confirm the oil unwind reaching beyond energy?\nWatch: supercore ex-trade; goods vs services; the passthrough verdict vs CPI\nhttps://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/ppi.htm
URL:https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/ppi.htm
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:retail-sales-2026-07-16@geomean.com
DTSTART:20260716T123000Z
SUMMARY:Retail Sales (Advance) (Jun 2026) — Census
DESCRIPTION:Jun 2026\nStakes: The consumer has carried the no-recession case; May spending rose 0.9%. Does it hold?\nhttps://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html
URL:https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:housing-starts-2026-07-17@geomean.com
DTSTART:20260717T123000Z
SUMMARY:Housing Starts & Permits (Jun 2026) — Census
DESCRIPTION:Jun 2026\nStakes: Starts fell 15% in May. Permits are the forward signal — are builders still pulling back?\nWatch: starts vs permits (the forward signal); single-family vs multifamily split\nhttps://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html
URL:https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:new-home-sales-2026-07-24@geomean.com
DTSTART:20260724T140000Z
SUMMARY:New Home Sales (Jun 2026) — Census
DESCRIPTION:Jun 2026\nStakes: Ten-plus months of unsold supply — watch price cuts and whether the glut deepens.\nWatch: months' supply + price cuts — the builder-glut read\nhttps://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html
URL:https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:durable-goods-2026-07-27@geomean.com
DTSTART:20260727T123000Z
SUMMARY:Durable Goods (Advance) (Jun 2026 advance) — Census
DESCRIPTION:Jun 2026 advance\nStakes: Core capex ran +10.5% y/y — the pillar of the no-growth-crack read. Still standing?\nhttps://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html
URL:https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:fomc-2026-07-29@geomean.com
DTSTART:20260729T180000Z
SUMMARY:FOMC Decision (Jul 28–29 meeting) — Fed
DESCRIPTION:Jul 28–29 meeting\nStakes: Half the committee penciled a hike in June; the July data has been cutting against it.\nWatch: decision vs priced; dots vs delivered; statement diff; coherence vs our own releases\nhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
URL:https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:pce-2026-07-30@geomean.com
DTSTART:20260730T123000Z
SUMMARY:Personal Income & Outlays (PCE) (Jun 2026) — BEA
DESCRIPTION:Jun 2026\nStakes: Core PCE at 3.4% is the number blocking a cut; the health-care-weighted services core is the tell.\nWatch: core PCE vs core CPI wedge (health-care weighting); the services core\nhttps://www.bea.gov/news/schedule
URL:https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:gdp-2026-07-30@geomean.com
DTSTART:20260730T123000Z
SUMMARY:GDP (Q2 2026 advance) — BEA
DESCRIPTION:Q2 2026 advance\nStakes: Q2 advance — does hard output data finally show the slowdown the surveys keep predicting?\nhttps://www.bea.gov/news/schedule
URL:https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:ism-mfg-2026-08-03@geomean.com
DTSTART:20260803T140000Z
SUMMARY:ISM Manufacturing (Jul 2026) — ISM
DESCRIPTION:Jul 2026\nStakes: The prices index: did the goods disinflation from June's oil unwind carry through July?\nWatch: prices index first (the inflation signal); internals vs the 50 breakeven\n(cadence-estimate)\nhttps://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-pmi-reports/
URL:https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-pmi-reports/
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:jolts-2026-08-04@geomean.com
DTSTART:20260804T140000Z
SUMMARY:JOLTS (Jun 2026) — BLS
DESCRIPTION:Jun 2026\nWatch: quits + hires vs layoffs (low-hire, low-fire); the Beveridge point\nhttps://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/jolts.htm
URL:https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/jolts.htm
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:ism-services-2026-08-05@geomean.com
DTSTART:20260805T140000Z
SUMMARY:ISM Services (Jul 2026) — ISM
DESCRIPTION:Jul 2026\nStakes: June cooled to 67.7 with activity intact; the question is whether services costs keep easing without oil's help.\nWatch: services prices (where the sticky core lives); activity vs prices split\n(cadence-estimate)\nhttps://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-pmi-reports/
URL:https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-pmi-reports/
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:jobs-2026-08-07@geomean.com
DTSTART:20260807T123000Z
SUMMARY:Employment Situation (NFP) (Jul 2026) — BLS
DESCRIPTION:Jul 2026\nStakes: After June's +57K and the participation drop, July decides: slowdown confirmed or one soft month?\nWatch: revisions + participation under the headline; industry mix; real wages\nhttps://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm
URL:https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:existing-home-sales-2026-08-11@geomean.com
DTSTART:20260811T140000Z
SUMMARY:Existing Home Sales (Jul 2026) — NAR
DESCRIPTION:Jul 2026\nStakes: June slipped to 4.09M — does July confirm the floor giving, and does the North/South split widen?\nWatch: turnover vs the mortgage-rate freeze; inventory + price by region\n(next-date-only)\nhttps://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/existing-home-sales
URL:https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/existing-home-sales
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:cpi-2026-08-12@geomean.com
DTSTART:20260812T123000Z
SUMMARY:CPI (Jul 2026) — BLS
DESCRIPTION:Jul 2026\nStakes: Consensus sees a negative headline month on June's oil drop — with oil back up since, this may be the low. Core services decides hike-vs-hold.\nWatch: core vs headline; contribution decomposition with our own weight math; run rates\nhttps://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm
URL:https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:ppi-2026-08-13@geomean.com
DTSTART:20260813T123000Z
SUMMARY:PPI (Jul 2026) — BLS
DESCRIPTION:Jul 2026\nStakes: The pipeline check — does producer-side disinflation confirm the oil unwind reaching beyond energy?\nWatch: supercore ex-trade; goods vs services; the passthrough verdict vs CPI\nhttps://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/ppi.htm
URL:https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/ppi.htm
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:retail-sales-2026-08-14@geomean.com
DTSTART:20260814T123000Z
SUMMARY:Retail Sales (Advance) (Jul 2026) — Census
DESCRIPTION:Jul 2026\nStakes: The consumer has carried the no-recession case; May spending rose 0.9%. Does it hold?\nhttps://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html
URL:https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:housing-starts-2026-08-18@geomean.com
DTSTART:20260818T123000Z
SUMMARY:Housing Starts & Permits (Jul 2026) — Census
DESCRIPTION:Jul 2026\nStakes: Starts fell 15% in May. Permits are the forward signal — are builders still pulling back?\nWatch: starts vs permits (the forward signal); single-family vs multifamily split\nhttps://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html
URL:https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:new-home-sales-2026-08-25@geomean.com
DTSTART:20260825T140000Z
SUMMARY:New Home Sales (Jul 2026) — Census
DESCRIPTION:Jul 2026\nStakes: Ten-plus months of unsold supply — watch price cuts and whether the glut deepens.\nWatch: months' supply + price cuts — the builder-glut read\nhttps://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html
URL:https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:pce-2026-08-26@geomean.com
DTSTART:20260826T123000Z
SUMMARY:Personal Income & Outlays (PCE) (Jul 2026) — BEA
DESCRIPTION:Jul 2026\nStakes: Core PCE at 3.4% is the number blocking a cut; the health-care-weighted services core is the tell.\nWatch: core PCE vs core CPI wedge (health-care weighting); the services core\nhttps://www.bea.gov/news/schedule
URL:https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:gdp-2026-08-26@geomean.com
DTSTART:20260826T123000Z
SUMMARY:GDP (Q2 2026 second) — BEA
DESCRIPTION:Q2 2026 second\nStakes: Q2 advance — does hard output data finally show the slowdown the surveys keep predicting?\nhttps://www.bea.gov/news/schedule
URL:https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:durable-goods-2026-08-26@geomean.com
DTSTART:20260826T123000Z
SUMMARY:Durable Goods (Advance) (Jul 2026 advance) — Census
DESCRIPTION:Jul 2026 advance\nStakes: Core capex ran +10.5% y/y — the pillar of the no-growth-crack read. Still standing?\nhttps://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html
URL:https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:jolts-2026-09-01@geomean.com
DTSTART:20260901T140000Z
SUMMARY:JOLTS (Jul 2026) — BLS
DESCRIPTION:Jul 2026\nWatch: quits + hires vs layoffs (low-hire, low-fire); the Beveridge point\nhttps://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/jolts.htm
URL:https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/jolts.htm
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:ism-mfg-2026-09-01@geomean.com
DTSTART:20260901T140000Z
SUMMARY:ISM Manufacturing (Aug 2026) — ISM
DESCRIPTION:Aug 2026\nStakes: The prices index: did the goods disinflation from June's oil unwind carry through July?\nWatch: prices index first (the inflation signal); internals vs the 50 breakeven\n(cadence-estimate)\nhttps://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-pmi-reports/
URL:https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-pmi-reports/
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:ism-services-2026-09-03@geomean.com
DTSTART:20260903T140000Z
SUMMARY:ISM Services (Aug 2026) — ISM
DESCRIPTION:Aug 2026\nStakes: June cooled to 67.7 with activity intact; the question is whether services costs keep easing without oil's help.\nWatch: services prices (where the sticky core lives); activity vs prices split\n(cadence-estimate)\nhttps://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-pmi-reports/
URL:https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-pmi-reports/
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:jobs-2026-09-04@geomean.com
DTSTART:20260904T123000Z
SUMMARY:Employment Situation (NFP) (Aug 2026) — BLS
DESCRIPTION:Aug 2026\nStakes: After June's +57K and the participation drop, July decides: slowdown confirmed or one soft month?\nWatch: revisions + participation under the headline; industry mix; real wages\nhttps://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm
URL:https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:ppi-2026-09-10@geomean.com
DTSTART:20260910T123000Z
SUMMARY:PPI (Aug 2026) — BLS
DESCRIPTION:Aug 2026\nStakes: The pipeline check — does producer-side disinflation confirm the oil unwind reaching beyond energy?\nWatch: supercore ex-trade; goods vs services; the passthrough verdict vs CPI\nhttps://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/ppi.htm
URL:https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/ppi.htm
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:cpi-2026-09-11@geomean.com
DTSTART:20260911T123000Z
SUMMARY:CPI (Aug 2026) — BLS
DESCRIPTION:Aug 2026\nStakes: Consensus sees a negative headline month on June's oil drop — with oil back up since, this may be the low. Core services decides hike-vs-hold.\nWatch: core vs headline; contribution decomposition with our own weight math; run rates\nhttps://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm
URL:https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:retail-sales-2026-09-16@geomean.com
DTSTART:20260916T123000Z
SUMMARY:Retail Sales (Advance) (Aug 2026) — Census
DESCRIPTION:Aug 2026\nStakes: The consumer has carried the no-recession case; May spending rose 0.9%. Does it hold?\nhttps://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html
URL:https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:fomc-2026-09-16@geomean.com
DTSTART:20260916T180000Z
SUMMARY:FOMC Decision (Sep 15–16 meeting (SEP)) — Fed
DESCRIPTION:Sep 15–16 meeting (SEP)\nStakes: Half the committee penciled a hike in June; the July data has been cutting against it.\nWatch: decision vs priced; dots vs delivered; statement diff; coherence vs our own releases\nhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
URL:https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:housing-starts-2026-09-17@geomean.com
DTSTART:20260917T123000Z
SUMMARY:Housing Starts & Permits (Aug 2026) — Census
DESCRIPTION:Aug 2026\nStakes: Starts fell 15% in May. Permits are the forward signal — are builders still pulling back?\nWatch: starts vs permits (the forward signal); single-family vs multifamily split\nhttps://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html
URL:https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:new-home-sales-2026-09-24@geomean.com
DTSTART:20260924T140000Z
SUMMARY:New Home Sales (Aug 2026) — Census
DESCRIPTION:Aug 2026\nStakes: Ten-plus months of unsold supply — watch price cuts and whether the glut deepens.\nWatch: months' supply + price cuts — the builder-glut read\nhttps://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html
URL:https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:durable-goods-2026-09-25@geomean.com
DTSTART:20260925T123000Z
SUMMARY:Durable Goods (Advance) (Aug 2026 advance) — Census
DESCRIPTION:Aug 2026 advance\nStakes: Core capex ran +10.5% y/y — the pillar of the no-growth-crack read. Still standing?\nhttps://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html
URL:https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:jolts-2026-09-29@geomean.com
DTSTART:20260929T140000Z
SUMMARY:JOLTS (Aug 2026) — BLS
DESCRIPTION:Aug 2026\nWatch: quits + hires vs layoffs (low-hire, low-fire); the Beveridge point\nhttps://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/jolts.htm
URL:https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/jolts.htm
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:pce-2026-09-30@geomean.com
DTSTART:20260930T123000Z
SUMMARY:Personal Income & Outlays (PCE) (Aug 2026) — BEA
DESCRIPTION:Aug 2026\nStakes: Core PCE at 3.4% is the number blocking a cut; the health-care-weighted services core is the tell.\nWatch: core PCE vs core CPI wedge (health-care weighting); the services core\nhttps://www.bea.gov/news/schedule
URL:https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:gdp-2026-09-30@geomean.com
DTSTART:20260930T123000Z
SUMMARY:GDP (Q2 2026 third) — BEA
DESCRIPTION:Q2 2026 third\nStakes: Q2 advance — does hard output data finally show the slowdown the surveys keep predicting?\nhttps://www.bea.gov/news/schedule
URL:https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:ism-mfg-2026-10-01@geomean.com
DTSTART:20261001T140000Z
SUMMARY:ISM Manufacturing (Sep 2026) — ISM
DESCRIPTION:Sep 2026\nStakes: The prices index: did the goods disinflation from June's oil unwind carry through July?\nWatch: prices index first (the inflation signal); internals vs the 50 breakeven\n(cadence-estimate)\nhttps://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-pmi-reports/
URL:https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-pmi-reports/
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:jobs-2026-10-02@geomean.com
DTSTART:20261002T123000Z
SUMMARY:Employment Situation (NFP) (Sep 2026) — BLS
DESCRIPTION:Sep 2026\nStakes: After June's +57K and the participation drop, July decides: slowdown confirmed or one soft month?\nWatch: revisions + participation under the headline; industry mix; real wages\nhttps://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm
URL:https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:ism-services-2026-10-05@geomean.com
DTSTART:20261005T140000Z
SUMMARY:ISM Services (Sep 2026) — ISM
DESCRIPTION:Sep 2026\nStakes: June cooled to 67.7 with activity intact; the question is whether services costs keep easing without oil's help.\nWatch: services prices (where the sticky core lives); activity vs prices split\n(cadence-estimate)\nhttps://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-pmi-reports/
URL:https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-pmi-reports/
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:cpi-2026-10-14@geomean.com
DTSTART:20261014T123000Z
SUMMARY:CPI (Sep 2026) — BLS
DESCRIPTION:Sep 2026\nStakes: Consensus sees a negative headline month on June's oil drop — with oil back up since, this may be the low. Core services decides hike-vs-hold.\nWatch: core vs headline; contribution decomposition with our own weight math; run rates\nhttps://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm
URL:https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:ppi-2026-10-15@geomean.com
DTSTART:20261015T123000Z
SUMMARY:PPI (Sep 2026) — BLS
DESCRIPTION:Sep 2026\nStakes: The pipeline check — does producer-side disinflation confirm the oil unwind reaching beyond energy?\nWatch: supercore ex-trade; goods vs services; the passthrough verdict vs CPI\nhttps://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/ppi.htm
URL:https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/ppi.htm
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:retail-sales-2026-10-15@geomean.com
DTSTART:20261015T123000Z
SUMMARY:Retail Sales (Advance) (Sep 2026) — Census
DESCRIPTION:Sep 2026\nStakes: The consumer has carried the no-recession case; May spending rose 0.9%. Does it hold?\nhttps://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html
URL:https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:housing-starts-2026-10-20@geomean.com
DTSTART:20261020T123000Z
SUMMARY:Housing Starts & Permits (Sep 2026) — Census
DESCRIPTION:Sep 2026\nStakes: Starts fell 15% in May. Permits are the forward signal — are builders still pulling back?\nWatch: starts vs permits (the forward signal); single-family vs multifamily split\nhttps://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html
URL:https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:durable-goods-2026-10-27@geomean.com
DTSTART:20261027T123000Z
SUMMARY:Durable Goods (Advance) (Sep 2026 advance) — Census
DESCRIPTION:Sep 2026 advance\nStakes: Core capex ran +10.5% y/y — the pillar of the no-growth-crack read. Still standing?\nhttps://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html
URL:https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:new-home-sales-2026-10-27@geomean.com
DTSTART:20261027T140000Z
SUMMARY:New Home Sales (Sep 2026) — Census
DESCRIPTION:Sep 2026\nStakes: Ten-plus months of unsold supply — watch price cuts and whether the glut deepens.\nWatch: months' supply + price cuts — the builder-glut read\nhttps://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html
URL:https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:fomc-2026-10-28@geomean.com
DTSTART:20261028T180000Z
SUMMARY:FOMC Decision (Oct 27–28 meeting) — Fed
DESCRIPTION:Oct 27–28 meeting\nStakes: Half the committee penciled a hike in June; the July data has been cutting against it.\nWatch: decision vs priced; dots vs delivered; statement diff; coherence vs our own releases\nhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
URL:https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:pce-2026-10-29@geomean.com
DTSTART:20261029T123000Z
SUMMARY:Personal Income & Outlays (PCE) (Sep 2026) — BEA
DESCRIPTION:Sep 2026\nStakes: Core PCE at 3.4% is the number blocking a cut; the health-care-weighted services core is the tell.\nWatch: core PCE vs core CPI wedge (health-care weighting); the services core\nhttps://www.bea.gov/news/schedule
URL:https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:gdp-2026-10-29@geomean.com
DTSTART:20261029T123000Z
SUMMARY:GDP (Q3 2026 advance) — BEA
DESCRIPTION:Q3 2026 advance\nStakes: Q2 advance — does hard output data finally show the slowdown the surveys keep predicting?\nhttps://www.bea.gov/news/schedule
URL:https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:ism-mfg-2026-11-02@geomean.com
DTSTART:20261102T150000Z
SUMMARY:ISM Manufacturing (Oct 2026) — ISM
DESCRIPTION:Oct 2026\nStakes: The prices index: did the goods disinflation from June's oil unwind carry through July?\nWatch: prices index first (the inflation signal); internals vs the 50 breakeven\n(cadence-estimate)\nhttps://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-pmi-reports/
URL:https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-pmi-reports/
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:jolts-2026-11-03@geomean.com
DTSTART:20261103T150000Z
SUMMARY:JOLTS (Sep 2026) — BLS
DESCRIPTION:Sep 2026\nWatch: quits + hires vs layoffs (low-hire, low-fire); the Beveridge point\nhttps://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/jolts.htm
URL:https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/jolts.htm
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:ism-services-2026-11-04@geomean.com
DTSTART:20261104T150000Z
SUMMARY:ISM Services (Oct 2026) — ISM
DESCRIPTION:Oct 2026\nStakes: June cooled to 67.7 with activity intact; the question is whether services costs keep easing without oil's help.\nWatch: services prices (where the sticky core lives); activity vs prices split\n(cadence-estimate)\nhttps://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-pmi-reports/
URL:https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-pmi-reports/
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:jobs-2026-11-06@geomean.com
DTSTART:20261106T133000Z
SUMMARY:Employment Situation (NFP) (Oct 2026) — BLS
DESCRIPTION:Oct 2026\nStakes: After June's +57K and the participation drop, July decides: slowdown confirmed or one soft month?\nWatch: revisions + participation under the headline; industry mix; real wages\nhttps://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm
URL:https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:cpi-2026-11-10@geomean.com
DTSTART:20261110T133000Z
SUMMARY:CPI (Oct 2026) — BLS
DESCRIPTION:Oct 2026\nStakes: Consensus sees a negative headline month on June's oil drop — with oil back up since, this may be the low. Core services decides hike-vs-hold.\nWatch: core vs headline; contribution decomposition with our own weight math; run rates\nhttps://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm
URL:https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:ppi-2026-11-13@geomean.com
DTSTART:20261113T133000Z
SUMMARY:PPI (Oct 2026) — BLS
DESCRIPTION:Oct 2026\nStakes: The pipeline check — does producer-side disinflation confirm the oil unwind reaching beyond energy?\nWatch: supercore ex-trade; goods vs services; the passthrough verdict vs CPI\nhttps://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/ppi.htm
URL:https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/ppi.htm
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:retail-sales-2026-11-17@geomean.com
DTSTART:20261117T133000Z
SUMMARY:Retail Sales (Advance) (Oct 2026) — Census
DESCRIPTION:Oct 2026\nStakes: The consumer has carried the no-recession case; May spending rose 0.9%. Does it hold?\nhttps://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html
URL:https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:housing-starts-2026-11-18@geomean.com
DTSTART:20261118T133000Z
SUMMARY:Housing Starts & Permits (Oct 2026) — Census
DESCRIPTION:Oct 2026\nStakes: Starts fell 15% in May. Permits are the forward signal — are builders still pulling back?\nWatch: starts vs permits (the forward signal); single-family vs multifamily split\nhttps://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html
URL:https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:pce-2026-11-25@geomean.com
DTSTART:20261125T133000Z
SUMMARY:Personal Income & Outlays (PCE) (Oct 2026) — BEA
DESCRIPTION:Oct 2026\nStakes: Core PCE at 3.4% is the number blocking a cut; the health-care-weighted services core is the tell.\nWatch: core PCE vs core CPI wedge (health-care weighting); the services core\nhttps://www.bea.gov/news/schedule
URL:https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:gdp-2026-11-25@geomean.com
DTSTART:20261125T133000Z
SUMMARY:GDP (Q3 2026 second) — BEA
DESCRIPTION:Q3 2026 second\nStakes: Q2 advance — does hard output data finally show the slowdown the surveys keep predicting?\nhttps://www.bea.gov/news/schedule
URL:https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:durable-goods-2026-11-25@geomean.com
DTSTART:20261125T133000Z
SUMMARY:Durable Goods (Advance) (Oct 2026 advance) — Census
DESCRIPTION:Oct 2026 advance\nStakes: Core capex ran +10.5% y/y — the pillar of the no-growth-crack read. Still standing?\nhttps://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html
URL:https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:new-home-sales-2026-11-25@geomean.com
DTSTART:20261125T150000Z
SUMMARY:New Home Sales (Oct 2026) — Census
DESCRIPTION:Oct 2026\nStakes: Ten-plus months of unsold supply — watch price cuts and whether the glut deepens.\nWatch: months' supply + price cuts — the builder-glut read\nhttps://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html
URL:https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:jolts-2026-12-01@geomean.com
DTSTART:20261201T150000Z
SUMMARY:JOLTS (Oct 2026) — BLS
DESCRIPTION:Oct 2026\nWatch: quits + hires vs layoffs (low-hire, low-fire); the Beveridge point\nhttps://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/jolts.htm
URL:https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/jolts.htm
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:ism-mfg-2026-12-01@geomean.com
DTSTART:20261201T150000Z
SUMMARY:ISM Manufacturing (Nov 2026) — ISM
DESCRIPTION:Nov 2026\nStakes: The prices index: did the goods disinflation from June's oil unwind carry through July?\nWatch: prices index first (the inflation signal); internals vs the 50 breakeven\n(cadence-estimate)\nhttps://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-pmi-reports/
URL:https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-pmi-reports/
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:ism-services-2026-12-03@geomean.com
DTSTART:20261203T150000Z
SUMMARY:ISM Services (Nov 2026) — ISM
DESCRIPTION:Nov 2026\nStakes: June cooled to 67.7 with activity intact; the question is whether services costs keep easing without oil's help.\nWatch: services prices (where the sticky core lives); activity vs prices split\n(cadence-estimate)\nhttps://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-pmi-reports/
URL:https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-pmi-reports/
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:jobs-2026-12-04@geomean.com
DTSTART:20261204T133000Z
SUMMARY:Employment Situation (NFP) (Nov 2026) — BLS
DESCRIPTION:Nov 2026\nStakes: After June's +57K and the participation drop, July decides: slowdown confirmed or one soft month?\nWatch: revisions + participation under the headline; industry mix; real wages\nhttps://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm
URL:https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:fomc-2026-12-09@geomean.com
DTSTART:20261209T190000Z
SUMMARY:FOMC Decision (Dec 8–9 meeting (SEP)) — Fed
DESCRIPTION:Dec 8–9 meeting (SEP)\nStakes: Half the committee penciled a hike in June; the July data has been cutting against it.\nWatch: decision vs priced; dots vs delivered; statement diff; coherence vs our own releases\nhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
URL:https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:cpi-2026-12-10@geomean.com
DTSTART:20261210T133000Z
SUMMARY:CPI (Nov 2026) — BLS
DESCRIPTION:Nov 2026\nStakes: Consensus sees a negative headline month on June's oil drop — with oil back up since, this may be the low. Core services decides hike-vs-hold.\nWatch: core vs headline; contribution decomposition with our own weight math; run rates\nhttps://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm
URL:https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:ppi-2026-12-15@geomean.com
DTSTART:20261215T133000Z
SUMMARY:PPI (Nov 2026) — BLS
DESCRIPTION:Nov 2026\nStakes: The pipeline check — does producer-side disinflation confirm the oil unwind reaching beyond energy?\nWatch: supercore ex-trade; goods vs services; the passthrough verdict vs CPI\nhttps://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/ppi.htm
URL:https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/ppi.htm
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:retail-sales-2026-12-16@geomean.com
DTSTART:20261216T133000Z
SUMMARY:Retail Sales (Advance) (Nov 2026) — Census
DESCRIPTION:Nov 2026\nStakes: The consumer has carried the no-recession case; May spending rose 0.9%. Does it hold?\nhttps://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html
URL:https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:housing-starts-2026-12-17@geomean.com
DTSTART:20261217T133000Z
SUMMARY:Housing Starts & Permits (Nov 2026) — Census
DESCRIPTION:Nov 2026\nStakes: Starts fell 15% in May. Permits are the forward signal — are builders still pulling back?\nWatch: starts vs permits (the forward signal); single-family vs multifamily split\nhttps://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html
URL:https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:pce-2026-12-23@geomean.com
DTSTART:20261223T133000Z
SUMMARY:Personal Income & Outlays (PCE) (Nov 2026) — BEA
DESCRIPTION:Nov 2026\nStakes: Core PCE at 3.4% is the number blocking a cut; the health-care-weighted services core is the tell.\nWatch: core PCE vs core CPI wedge (health-care weighting); the services core\nhttps://www.bea.gov/news/schedule
URL:https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:gdp-2026-12-23@geomean.com
DTSTART:20261223T133000Z
SUMMARY:GDP (Q3 2026 third) — BEA
DESCRIPTION:Q3 2026 third\nStakes: Q2 advance — does hard output data finally show the slowdown the surveys keep predicting?\nhttps://www.bea.gov/news/schedule
URL:https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:durable-goods-2026-12-23@geomean.com
DTSTART:20261223T133000Z
SUMMARY:Durable Goods (Advance) (Nov 2026 advance) — Census
DESCRIPTION:Nov 2026 advance\nStakes: Core capex ran +10.5% y/y — the pillar of the no-growth-crack read. Still standing?\nhttps://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html
URL:https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:new-home-sales-2026-12-23@geomean.com
DTSTART:20261223T150000Z
SUMMARY:New Home Sales (Nov 2026) — Census
DESCRIPTION:Nov 2026\nStakes: Ten-plus months of unsold supply — watch price cuts and whether the glut deepens.\nWatch: months' supply + price cuts — the builder-glut read\nhttps://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html
URL:https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html
END:VEVENT
END:VCALENDAR