Fed — GeoMean Research

Fed

The reaction-function read on FOMC meetings and policy.

At a glancelatest data · Oct 9

Fed Funds3.88%—Raised to 3.75–4.00% Sep 16, 12–0; the minutes say most participants saw another increase by year end; Waller: not necessarily at consecutive meetings2Y Yield4.75%−0.024.80% on Oct 9, −3bp on the week; odds of an Oct 28 increase stayed near 20%, December about 85%10Y Yield5.22%−0.065.24% on Oct 9, −4bp on the week; 5.31% on Oct 5 was the highest close since May 2002; the Oct 7 auction sold at 5.30% with dealers winning 2.5%, the least since at least 200930Y Yield5.60%−0.075.60% on Oct 9, −3bp on the week; 5.67% on Oct 7 was the highest close since July 2002; the Oct 8 auction sold at 5.618%10Y–2Y0.44%−0.0344bp on Oct 9, from 45: the 10-year fell 4bp on the week and the two-year 3Balance Sheet$6.75T+4.5BUnchanged by the Sep 16 decision; the SOMA directive is identical to July's

The Fed raised its target range a quarter point to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 on a 12–0 vote, its first increase since July 2023; the nine members who held in July all voted to raise. The median projection has the rate at 4.1% through 2027, from 3.8 and 3.6 in June, with 16 of 18 expecting another increase this year and 2% inflation reached in 2029. Chair Warsh said August’s CPI was not the trigger. Two-year yields rose 7bp to 4.74% on the day, a 2026 high; the 30-year fell 1bp to 5.35%. Odds of an October 28 increase fell from about 70% on September 28 to 23% on October 2, after Williams said there is “no need for urgency” (Sep 29), BEA restated core PCE to 3.0% (Sep 30) and payrolls rose 29,000 (Oct 2); December stays above 75%. The September minutes (Oct 7) say most participants saw another increase as likely appropriate by year end, and Waller said Oct 8 that further increases need not come at consecutive meetings; odds of an October increase stayed near 20%. The 10-year closed at 5.31% on Oct 5, its highest since May 2002, and ended Oct 9 at 5.24%; the Oct 7 10-year auction sold at 5.30% with dealers winning 2.5%, the smallest share since at least 2009.

September 16, 2026
Nine Fed Members Switched From Holding in July to Raising in September FOMC
The nine Fed members who voted to hold in July all voted to raise in September, and the target range rose a quarter point to 3.75–4 percent on a 12–0 vote, the first increase since July 2023. The median projection has one more increase this year, no cut before 2028, and 2 percent inflation in 2029. Chair Warsh said no single report drove the decision and cited breadth, a stronger economy, and geopolitics; the core PCE level he cited is one whose investment-fee line BEA re-measures on September 30. Two-year yields rose 7 basis points on the day and gave it all back the next.
August 28, 2026
Warsh Said the Soft Summer Readings Are Not Real Progress on Inflation FOMC
In his first Jackson Hole keynote, Chair Warsh called the 2 percent PCE objective 'a firm, fixed target,' said the Fed's 'predominant focus right now should be on prices,' and said he would be 'hard pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive.' He dismissed the summer's better inflation readings via a new diffusion measure and never mentioned the balance sheet.
July 29, 2026
Warsh's Press Conference Sent 30-Year Yields to a 2007 High FOMC
The Fed held at 3.50–3.75% over three dissents for a hike — Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan, the first three-vote dissent in one direction since September 2016 — and investors split the day in two: hike odds fell on the statement; 30-year yields rose to a 2007 high during the press conference. Short-maturity investors heard patience; long-maturity investors heard a committee that may not deliver it.
June 17, 2026
The Warsh Fed Signaled Higher Rates — Bond Investors Didn't Buy It FOMC
The Warsh Fed held rates but flipped its dot plot to a hike and marked inflation up; the 10-year yield held anyway.