Fed — GeoMean Research

Fed

The reaction-function read on FOMC meetings and policy.

At a glancelatest data · Aug 25

Fed Funds3.63%—Held 9–3 in July; the minutes show many wanted tightening if inflation held2Y Yield4.24%—Rose 7bp in the week Treasury moved to cap long yields10Y Yield4.70%−0.044.74% — back near the top of its 2026 range30Y Yield5.23%−0.04Closed 5.31% Aug 17, the highest since June 200710Y–2Y0.47%+0.01Positive again — no recession signalBalance Sheet$6.75T−14.3BShrinking; the NY Fed's bill purchases are paused to Sep 14

Two authorities pointed opposite ways in one week. The July minutes (Aug 19) showed many participants judging that tightening would likely be necessary if inflation didn't decline — more hawkish than the 9–3 vote implied. Hours earlier the Treasury doubled its buybacks of 10-to-30-year bonds, off the quarterly schedule, after the 30-year closed at 5.31% on Aug 17 — its highest since June 2007. Investors sided with the Treasury: gold, Bitcoin and inflation compensation all rose, and the 30-year still ended the week higher. Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole Aug 28.

July 29, 2026
The 9–3 Hold Cut September Odds; the Press Conference Sent 30-Year Yields to a 2007 High FOMC
The Fed held at 3.50–3.75% over three dissents for a hike — Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan, the first three-vote dissent in one direction since September 2016 — and investors split the day in two: hike odds fell on the statement; 30-year yields rose to a 2007 high during the press conference. Short-maturity investors heard patience; long-maturity investors heard a committee that may not deliver it.
June 17, 2026
The Warsh Fed Signaled Higher Rates — Bond Investors Didn't Buy It FOMC
The Warsh Fed held rates but flipped its dot plot to a hike and marked inflation up; the 10-year yield held anyway.