Jobs
The employment read — what's under the headline payroll number.
September payrolls rose 29,000 against an 84,000 consensus, and July–August were revised down a combined 60,000, leaving a three-month average of 51,000. The labor force grew 485,000 after 683,000 (neither month significant; more than half the gain was people under 25), and unemployment edged up to 4.2% (4.14→4.18) as more people looked. The labor force's 999,000 published decline over the year is smaller than January's 1.4 million population revision. Wages +3.0% y/y, the slowest since May 2021.
- September 29, 2026 August's Drop in Job Openings Was All at Workplaces Under 10 Workers JOLTS
August JOLTS — job openings fell 256,000 to 7.08 million, below the roughly 7.2 million expected, and establishments with fewer than 10 employees account for more than all of it: their openings fell 335,000, the only openings decline BLS flagged, while every larger private size class held or rose. That smallest group is back exactly to its level of a year ago; the 160,000 rise in openings since August 2025 is all at larger employers and government. Layoffs edged down to 1.64 million, the fewest since March 2025; quits held at 1.9 percent.
- September 4, 2026 Payrolls Rose 162,000 and 683,000 People Joined the Labor Force Jobs
August payrolls rose 162,000 against a 53,000 consensus, and June and July were revised up a combined 55,000 — the first upward revision since the May report. Two sectors, restaurants and local school districts, supplied 101,000 of the gain, and the school figure offsets July's drop. The household survey reversed its summer in one month: 683,000 people joined the labor force after 984,000 had left in June and July, and unemployment held at 4.1 percent with people coming in rather than leaving. Wages grew 3.1 percent from a year ago, the slowest since May 2021 and 0.3 points below inflation.
- September 1, 2026 Openings per Unemployed Worker Rose to 1.05 Because the Labor Force Shrank JOLTS
July JOLTS — job openings per unemployed worker rose to 1.05, the highest since January 2025, and for a second month the ratio rose mostly because the unemployed count fell: 178,000 fewer unemployed in a month when the labor force shrank by 264,000. June's ratio was revised from 1.04 to 1.01 after openings were cut 177,000. The labor force then grew by 683,000 in August, though the three-month net is still −301,000. Quits fell to 1.9 percent, a 13th month at or below 2.0; hires 3.2, layoffs 1.0 — low-hire, low-fire, and no labor case for a hike or a cut in September.
- August 28, 2026 The Payroll Benchmark Revision Was −79,000, After Three Years Near 700,000 Jobs
The preliminary benchmark revision to March 2026 payrolls was −79,000, or −0.1 percent — after three years in which the same exercise cut 306,000, then 818,000, then 911,000. The revision is smaller than the 10-year average, private payrolls were revised down 178,000 while government was revised up 99,000, and the payroll estimates the policy argument was built on turn out to have been about right through March.
- August 7, 2026 Payrolls Fell 23,000 as 264,000 People Left the Labor Force Jobs
July payrolls fell 23,000 against a consensus near +83,000 — the first negative month since 2020, per press readings of the series, with 103,000 more jobs revised away from May and June. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% anyway, because 264,000 people left the labor force. The series disagree on the surface and reconcile through participation — a smaller, softening labor market. Investors priced the dovish side: September hike odds fell from about 67% earlier in the week to near 40%.
- August 4, 2026 Openings per Unemployed Worker Rose Because the Labor Force Shrank JOLTS
June JOLTS — job openings were little changed at 7.36 million, yet openings per unemployed worker rose to 1.04, the highest since January 2025. The gauge rose because the unemployed count fell 213,000 in a month when household employment fell 507,000 and 720,000 people left the labor force — slack is falling because people are leaving the labor force, not because they're finding jobs. Quits spent a twelfth straight month at or below 2.0% and layoffs held at 1.1%: still low-hire, low-fire.
- June 30, 2026 Nobody's Quitting or Getting Fired JOLTS
May JOLTS — job openings held at 7.59M, above the 7.28M consensus, and layoffs stayed low. The labor-market break that would justify a rate cut still isn't here. Underneath, nothing is moving — quits sit below their pre-pandemic norm and the vacancy-to-unemployed ratio is back near one. The Beveridge curve shows a market that normalized without a recession.
- June 5, 2026 Behind May's Jobs Beat, a Labor Market at Stall Speed Jobs
May's headline jobs beat masked a labor market at stall speed: full-time work and the private, cyclical core are both shrinking.