GeoMeanMacro and markets analysis that keeps score.https://geomean.com/en-usCheaper Oil Couldn't Cool a Services Corehttps://geomean.com/issues/2026-06-26-weekly/https://geomean.com/issues/2026-06-26-weekly/The dovish bet rested on falling oil. This week oil delivered — WTI down more than 10% to $70 as the Strait of Hormuz reopened — and the bet broke anyway, because core PCE hit a three-year high on services inflation that cheaper oil never touches.Fri, 26 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMTThe No-Hike Bet Rests on Oil Staying Downhttps://geomean.com/issues/2026-06-20-weekly/https://geomean.com/issues/2026-06-20-weekly/The market faded the Warsh Fed's hawkish dots because the oil shock collapsed — but this week the floor under cheaper oil took its first hits, and core PCE on June 25 can't settle it.Sat, 20 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMTWarsh's Fed Penciled a Hike the Market Doesn't Believehttps://geomean.com/issues/2026-06-19-weekly/https://geomean.com/issues/2026-06-19-weekly/The Warsh Fed flipped its forecast to a 2026 rate hike the market doesn't believe — the same week oil collapsed 25%.Fri, 19 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMTDoes the Fed follow through on dot-plot surprises?https://geomean.com/explainers/dot-plot-follow-through/https://geomean.com/explainers/dot-plot-follow-through/Evergreen explainer. The dot plot (SEP) began June 2012. Linked from fomc QUESTIONS "the dots." Inaugural page of the reference/ library.Fri, 19 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMTThe Warsh Fed's First Move Was Hawkish — and the Bond Market Didn't Buy Ithttps://geomean.com/issues/2026-06-17-june-fomc/https://geomean.com/issues/2026-06-17-june-fomc/The Warsh Fed held rates but flipped its dot plot to a hike and marked inflation up; the bond market faded the move.Wed, 17 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMTThe Pipe Behind the Pump Is Loadedhttps://geomean.com/issues/2026-06-11-may-ppi/https://geomean.com/issues/2026-06-11-may-ppi/May producer prices show the inflation pipeline loading up — a record monthly jump in goods and supercore at a four-year high — held out of consumer prices only by shrinking margins.Thu, 11 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMTThe Second Inflation Wave Is, So Far, an Oil Shockhttps://geomean.com/issues/2026-06-10-may-cpi/https://geomean.com/issues/2026-06-10-may-cpi/May CPI ran hot, but more than 60% was energy — so far a war-driven oil shock sitting on a core that hasn't broken out.Wed, 10 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMTEverything Is a Rates Trade Nowhttps://geomean.com/issues/2026-06-07-weekly/https://geomean.com/issues/2026-06-07-weekly/A hot jobs print broke a ten-week melt-up and turned every asset into a bet on the Fed.Sun, 07 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMTBehind May's Jobs Beat, a Labor Market at Stall Speedhttps://geomean.com/issues/2026-06-05-may-jobs/https://geomean.com/issues/2026-06-05-may-jobs/May's headline jobs beat masked a labor market at stall speed: full-time work and the private, cyclical core are both shrinking.Fri, 05 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT