Summary of July Existing-Home Sales · August 11, 2026

  • Sales ran at a 4.06 million annual pace, down 1.7% from June and up 0.7% on the year (NAR) — a seventh straight month inside 4.01–4.19 million.
  • Individual investors and second-home buyers fell to 14% of sales from 20% a year ago; cash to 26% from 31%; repeat owner-occupant buyers now roughly 57%, from about 52%.
  • Northeast median price +5.2% y/y (fastest region, from +3.9% in June); the South +0.9% for a second month — a 4.3-point gap in annual price growth.
  • Inventory, 1.54 million homes, slipped 0.6% below July 2025 after going flat in June; months of supply held at 4.6.
  • Mortgage rates climbed from 6.43% to 6.69% between early July and last week (Freddie Mac) — after July’s contracts were signed. The August report, due September 10, is the first test.

Total sales barely moved — a seventh straight month inside a 4.01–4.19 million annual band, with June revised up to 4.13 million — but the people doing the buying changed. Individual investors and second-home buyers took 14% of July’s transactions against 20% a year ago, and cash purchases fell to 26% from 31% (NAR).

These NAR survey shares swing month to month — first-time buyers dropped four points against June yet sit a point above last July — so the year-over-year read is steadier. The release reports shares, not reasons; it doesn’t say why the buyers least exposed to mortgage rates are the ones stepping back.

What the arithmetic does show: repeat owner-occupant buyers — households selling one home to buy the next — now make up roughly 57% of the market, from about 52% a year ago, and with cash shrinking, about three purchases in four carry a mortgage. Whether trade-up equity can keep carrying a $434,100 median (+2.0% on the year) at today’s rates is open — July doesn’t answer it.

Northeast prices moved further ahead of the South

For a second month the Northeast was the only region where sales rose (+2.0%, though July’s pace merely matches a year ago), and its median price, $563,800, rose 5.2% from July 2025 — the fastest in the country, up from June’s 3.9%. The South fell most for a second month (−3.1%, after −3.6%) and its price growth stayed at 0.9%. The gap between Northeast and South is now 4.3 percentage points of annual price growth, from 3.0 in June — the pattern the listing data showed in early July: owners list at similar rates in both regions; buyers in the Northeast keep signing contracts and buyers in the South don’t.

Supply has stopped growing and slipped below last year

Total inventory, 1.54 million homes, fell 1.9% on the month and now sits 0.6% below July 2025. Supply rose through the spring to 1.57 million in May, held there in June, and fell in July — the recovery in homes for sale that ran through the first half has stopped. Months of supply held at 4.6 — sales eased alongside inventory. The release doesn’t publish new-listing counts, so it can’t say whether fewer owners are listing or buyers absorbed more.

July’s buyers locked their rates in May and June

Lawrence Yun (NAR chief economist) called sales “remarkably stable, even amid the rising mortgage rate environment of the past few months.” The stability is real; the rate claim is early. Existing-home sales record closings, which trail contract signings by a month or two — the buyers who closed in July locked 6.4–6.5% mortgages in May and June, not the 6.69% Freddie Mac reported last week. The climb began in early July, so its first appearance in this series comes with the August report on September 10. A market that held 4 million at 6.5% has not yet been tested at 6.7% — and it meets that test more mortgage-dependent than a year ago.

Sources

Data: National Association of Realtors, Existing-Home Sales, July 2026 (released Aug 11, 2026); prior-month and year-ago comparatives from the same release and NAR’s June 2026 release. Mortgage rates: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, weekly through Aug 6. 2026 monthly sales and inventory history archived in the GeoMean data files with the puller script. Builds on the housing inventory divergence deep dive and June’s construction read.