Summary of September Pending Home Sales · October 20, 2026
- The index fell 7.3% to 66.0, the lowest on record, and 11.3% from a year earlier, with all four regions lower (NAR, index table).
- The unadjusted index fell 12.6% from a year earlier, so seasonal adjustment did not produce the decline.
- The 30-year rate averaged 6.86% in September against 6.35% a year earlier (Freddie Mac).
September’s 66.0 is 4.6 points under January 2025’s record low
January 2025’s 70.6 was reported as an all-time low, which put it below the April 2020 pandemic trough; no month in NAR’s tables since has gone lower. NAR’s release gives only percentage changes, so it does not call the level a record. August was not revised (71.2).
December 2025 fell 7.4% while rates were edging down, so a drop this size does not by itself show rates at work. The level is what is new.
Redfin’s and Realtor.com’s counts, built separately from NAR’s, also fell. Redfin has September at its lowest since 2014 apart from April 2020, which on its measure was lower. Realtor.com counted 6.4% fewer listings under contract than in August, twice the drop of a year earlier.
Signings fell further below 2025 as rates rose above 2025’s
In August the 30-year rate averaged 0.08 points above August 2025, and signings were already 4.7% below, a gap rates do not explain. In September the rate was 0.51 points above and the gap widened to 11.3%. On September’s median existing-home price of $417,500 with 20% down, the year’s rise in rates took the monthly principal and interest to $2,191 from about $2,080.
Lawrence Yun (NAR) puts the decline on “fast-rising mortgage rates.” The figures support him for September’s widening, not for the shortfall August already had. Redfin says economic uncertainty was already keeping buyers out in July and August, which would fit August’s shortfall; that is not measured here.
October’s contracts are being signed at 7.28% or higher
Freddie Mac’s 30-year rate was 7.28% on October 1 and 7.40% on October 8 and 15, the highest since November 2023, against 6.17% to 6.34% last October. October’s readings so far average 7.36% against last October’s 6.25%, $246 a month more on the same loan.
Yun says rates “could be topping out” because they have risen much more than the Fed’s short-term rate. The next survey is October 22, and October’s index is due November 18. September’s contracts become the October and November closings in NAR’s existing-home sales report.
Sources
National Association of REALTORS®, Pending Home Sales, September 2026 and its index table, archived with the August 2026 and August 2025 tables, from which the chart’s history is built · Associated Press via NAR’s newsroom, Feb 27, 2025, archived · Redfin, Oct 12, 2026, archived · Realtor.com Economic Research, national history (rolling file; October 13 copy archived) · Freddie Mac PMMS weekly history (rolling file; October 20 copy archived) · Median price from NAR’s September existing-home sales · Follows the August pending home sales note and the September existing-home sales note.